Within your poker playing style there will be a link between that style and the way you think about hands. Because there are four suits with specific numbers of cards per suit there are certain percentages and probabilities of what the next card drawn may be in any given situation. The odds of these occurrences remain the same no matter what opponent you play against. When making a decision in poker, some players like to use intuition whilst others take a numbers approach and rely solely on the mathematics of the game to decide what to do.

Chris “Jesus” Ferguson, the 2000 World Series of Poker Main Event champion, is a player that bases his entire game on mathematics. He is a computer programmer so working with numbers and probability is second nature to him. He makes a strong argument that providing you do the right thing by the numbers you will never go wrong. This argument is valid because mathematical probability in any poker situation is always set, so to deviate from what the odds say to do is actually playing the game in the wrong way according to mathematical principles. Doing this “incorrect” move over a period of time will be costing you money.

A player known as a “feel player” will make other moves not totally dictated by the numbers often at the expense of the correct mathematical move. These players are more likely to favour gut feelings and making big calls or big folds based on player knowledge and other tells they have figured out whilst at the table. They understand the odds but use other factors to dictate the best play at that time. The exact spot they find themselves in is treated differently based on the factors additional to the math they are considering.

If you polarise both types of player, one player who uses only the odds involved in poker will always call certain all-in bets if the numbers are in their favour. For example, if they had JJ and the board was K X X and their opponent shoved on them giving them 3:1 odds for their remaining chips, a math player would decide whether he had a 3:1 chance of better that the Jacks were the best hand and if so they would call. The math would be the primarily consideration.

If a feel opponent was in the same spot, they would decide how likely it was that their opponent had the K or a better hand than Jacks based on the odds but also how they feel at that particular time. If they “had a feeling” they were beat, they might fold even if the odds are saying call, especially if they were playing an opponent that they felt was only capable of this move with a premium hand. A math player would still call because the odds said it was correct. Daniel Negreanu is a good example of a solid feel player and both styles are successful if utilised correctly.

The best strategy in poker I find is to consider all angles. You should have a solid understanding of poker odds and probabilities and work hard to get yourself a mathematical base with which to effectively analyse all poker situations. Books by Howard Lederer, David Sklansky and Chris Ferguson are good for this type of learning. People marvel at Gus Hansen’s approach to poker but any big move or big call he makes is backed up solidly by numbers and odds. Along with your poker math foundation you should also be observant and analyse each opponent and make decisions based on all the factors. I believe a successful modern player of 2009 has a combination of math and personal intuition, so do not sacrifice one part of the analysis for the other – work on both.

By Malcolm Clarke