The Poker Main Event – Skill vs Chance

Poker is a game that combines a multitude of skills. Hand reading, the ability to sense a bluff, psychology, spotting tells, knowing how to play a drawing hand correctly are a small handful of the skills required in order to be a good poker player, although there are many more. Because we are relying upon the random nature of the dealing of the cards, luck plays a massive part in each individual hand of poker. It does not dilute the influence of skill in the long run, but in the short term you can suffer large amounts of variance in your results, even when doing things perfectly. It can drive you mad, but it is part of the game.

This is not necessarily a terrible thing. Luck being a part of poker allows the less able player to believe that he has a chance against the skilled player. An amateur can play a heads up match against Doyle Brunson and win. Could you beat Roger Federer in a set of Tennis? Or Tiger Woods in a round of Golf? Probably not. But because any player can sit with the pros and actually have a fighting chance this has allowed Doyle and other professionals to milk the amateurs for a lot of money during their career. How? Over time the luck evens out and it becomes about the long term skills rather than a short term miracle card. If your card is 25% to hit eventually you will see that only 25% of the time you got the card, and the predicted 75% of the time you lost. Professionals keep playing hand after hand, and playing correctly they get the benefit of the times where doing the right thing pays off for them.

Many players dislike playing Multi table poker tournaments because of the factor of luck involved. You can play perfectly for hours, or even days in the larger events only for a sick river card to undo all of your good efforts. It can be hard to take, just look at some of Phil Hellmuth’s outbursts on YouTube and you will see what I mean. The ability to turn around after a bad beat and say “that’s poker” is actually a skill! Can you take a vicious beat and then lay down QQ in the next hand when you face strong action from a player you know could only be playing AA or KK? If yes then you are a strong poker player.

What many players forget to realise is that this relationship between luck and skill is to be embraced, not hated. If it was not for the high degree of luck in cards many players would not have the dream that a good run in poker could literally change their life. We all look with envy at professional footballers making tens of thousands per week, but we know deep down we are just not as fit, or as good as they are. But with poker players it is different. Right or wrongly we may be able to get a big score and earn that large amount of money that could change our lives forever. It is not impossible to achieve this and by working hard on learning the game, if the luck works in your favour you never know how the cards may fall.

In actual hands it is worth noting also that many big pots are played out the same no matter who is playing. In normal cash games, if a player is dealt KK and the other AA (known as the cooler) it will most likely be all-in pre flop with luck determining who gets the big pot. But the smaller pots where you are limping in position with a suited connector or middle pair, it becomes more about the skill side of the game who wins the pot here. A player like Tom “Durrr” Dwan enjoys incredible cash game success by skilfully winning smaller pots with regularity, he understands and accepts the big pots will play out in their own accord, but you will rarely see him dominated on 50/50 hands, where he skilfully wins more than his share against most players.

Knowing how to play into the luck aspect of poker is a skill. We use bankroll management, temperament and an acceptance that we gamble but in a controlled way in order to allow us to succeed at winning poker in the long run. If you can play good poker and win $200 for the entire year and still be happy it was only luck that prevented you from winning big then congratulations, you’re a poker player.

Malcolm Clarke

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